標籤

2021年10月2日 星期六

投機比喻 - 推銀機

 


今天想到投機交易很像推銀機,不過是一部多人同時進行的推銀機。


每個人都可以決定自己放多少錢進去,每一枚放進去的金錢也對整個局勢有著微妙的影響力。每人都渴望著一大堆錢幣大量下跌的一幕。有人覺得有技巧,因為配合觀察你可以決定甚麼时候入場;有人覺得是單純運氣的賭博,它就是設計得讓你有種「我有操控權」的幻覺。


無可否認,兩者都非常容易令人上癮。


日本有一種叫柏青哥的彈珠機(波子機),好像也常常被用來比喻股市的。我沒有玩過所以不太清楚,但在日本見過,就好像香港的機鋪,很多落泊大叔出入;又有點像麻雀館,門口五光十色。有些人會記錄每局結果去嘗試捉路。


我不也是在每天交易後寫Trading Journal嗎?


Pachinko我不知道,但沒聽說過可以靠推銀機穩定獲利的人。至於以打德州撲克、日內投機等為生的人,還是有聽說過。只是成功的人往往只佔少數。

但又有哪一行業不是呢?

全力以赴,依然有可能一無所獲,這現實般的殘酷無情才是人生的寫照。

------

後記:好奇心作祟,去youtube看了一下柏青哥是甚麼一回事,原來也有職業玩家

2021年10月1日 星期五

絮語 - Dune

 最近了Dune的電影,也在讀它的小說原著。我相信它會是我近年來看過最精采的文學作品之一。事實上我近幾年已經很少看小說,也少看電影和劇集。原因?每個城市人的枷鎖:不夠時間。

引一段故事最開端的經典,一段關於恐懼的箴言:

"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."

平白,卻有力。


2021年9月15日 星期三

[備份轉貼] Everything You Wanted To Know About Visualization, Part 1

When discussing elite performance, visualization is a key tool for boosting performance and increasing success. It’s widely utilized not just by traders but also by athletes and entertainers. Scientific studies have documented its usefulness in improving performance. We can all agree that it’s a fabulous tool and that it’s worth making use of.

What’s discussed less often is how visualization actually works in practice. When we are making our wonderful images of trading success, how should we do it? What works and what doesn’t with visualization—and why? And how can we improve on standard visualization techniques to take our trading to the very highest level?

In this series, I will do a deep dive on everything related to visualization and hopefully answer the questions above. First, I will cover the basics—what is  visualization and how people think it works, drawing on a host of sources.

Then we will cover how to improve on existing visualization, using tools and techniques that are widely used in other spheres, most notably therapy.

Lastly, we will address new and exciting ways to use visualization to change memories, as a goal-setting exercise or to change your personality wholesale.

What Is Visualization?

Quite simply, visualization is mental practice. It’s the process of imagining something that you want to happen—either a goal or a process. The typical visualization pattern comes from the sports world, where an athlete would imagine themselves winning a championship or standing on the podium receiving  a medal. In some martial arts, students are encouraged to practice moves by observing the teacher, then making a movie of the motion in their head and then stepping into that picture—before they ever make any physical exertion.

The idea behind visualization is that mental practice is just as good as real-life practice, giving you a chance either to rehearse for an event that hasn’t happened or to reinforce other practice that you have already put in. By practicing in your head, you have effectively increased your training time and intensity. For instance, one famous study of basketball players demonstrated that a mix of shooting baskets and visualizing shooting baskets was just as effective as regular old practice.

Essentially, the mental practice is working the same as real practice—and no matter what form, practice is practice. As we undertake a course of action, for instance making a smart trading decision, we form a neural pathway—that is, a connection of brain circuits necessary to accomplish the task. As we practice performing a certain action, we strengthen and reinforce that neural pathway. In his wonderful book The Talent Code, Daniel Coyle explains how the myelin around the neural pathway of elite performers actually becomes thicker, providing physical evidence of what we are talking about.

This conclusion: your brain interprets reality and imagined things very similarly. This squares with our everyday reality. Imagine if you have a phobia of snakes and someone shows you a vivid photograph of a snake—you’ll have a fearful reaction, even if it’s involuntary. Essentially, a phobia is a learned reaction to a certain stress—even if you didn’t choose that reaction consciously. For instance, some people have a paralyzing fear of water that prevents them from taking a shower. Nevertheless, that neural pathway is strong. With visualization, we are deliberately choosing the behavior we want and using mental practice to reinforce it.

What To Do

With respect to trading, a good visualization could be making a mental walkthrough of yourself making a good trade or staying calm and collected during stressful market conditions. It could be imaging yourself cashing a certain-sized check after a huge, breakout year for your trading. The key is that you make pictures in your head to simulate the actual event that you want to happen and that it is relevant to your trading results. While you could make an image of you lying on the beach in the Caribbean and enjoying an early retirement owing to your trading profits, that would probably only improve your cocktail-mixing abilities.

The most helpful course of action is to use visualization to reinforce other positive steps you are taking in your trading, like making process-driven decisions. Ideally, you are now trading at least a few well-defined setups for entries and have some good exit criteria in place.  You need to define your best setups in advance and be comfortable with how they work. You could define a setup by having a checklist of necessary points for it to qualify—for instance, if it meets five out of seven points then you put on the position. The key is to have a more or less objective way of defining what is a good trade in order to get in. The sound trading fundamentals need to be there first. Visualization is the ideal tool to reinforce good trading fundamentals—but it can’t replace them.

Let’s Get Started

Following the above example, let’s say you want to do a visualization exercise to improve decision-making, so that you are always making good trades, sticking to your system and staying disciplined. You decide to visualize this. How would it work?

There are a few key steps:

  1. Get relaxed. You must block out distractions in order to visualize successfully

  2. Begin your visualization from the appropriate starting point. In this case, you want to start off in a calm, focused resourceful state in a work setting—because you are going to stay there

  3. Walk through slowly, deliberately and in vivid detail the activity that you want to practice. See yourself doing it.

  4. Check that it all works and is realistic, otherwise your brain won’t buy it. As a counterexample, you could imagine leaping tall buildings in a single bound but your brain will never accept the suggestion.

  5. Review what you’ve done.

  6. Update or rerun as needed

1.Relaxation

Most traders are not very good at relaxing—stress and tension are our two most common sensations.  The key to relaxation is an awareness of our whole body and what it’s doing—our muscles, our breathings, our posture. After days sitting in front of the screen, we often don’t notice how tense we have gotten and our badly our posture has deteriorated. A quick walkthrough on how to relax

  1. Find a comfortable place, like a well-supported office chair, a sofa, or a recliner. A bed is not the right place for this- you don’t want to fall asleep.

  2. Become aware of your body. Do a quick scan of all of the various areas of your body, little by little—starting at your forehead, moving down through your face, your jaw, your neck, etc until you get to your toes. Where there seems to be tension, just make a mental note.  Notice your breathing—how you inhale, how you exhale, how often.

  3. Interrupt your normal breathing pattern for a second. Hold your breath, then breathe out until you have nothing left. Then take a *big*, *deep* breath in—feel it all the way down to your diaphragm. Hold it for ten seconds and *slowly* exhale. Let the air just leak out, gradually. Each breathing cycle should take a long time, up to a minute. Repeat this process ten times, until you start to feel more saturated . You should feel your heart rate begin to slow down—if you want, check the pulse on one of your wrists.

  4. While continuing this breathing pattern, begin to progressively relax your body. Start with your forehead, and flex the muscle (yes—there is a muscle there!), then let it go and leave it relaxed. Then move down your body again, doing the same with your face, your jaw, etc. Where you noted tension earlier, repeat this two or three times until you’re sure that you’ve worked the tension out.
  5. If it helps, you can imagine someone progressively massaging you. Or you could imagine a balloon gradually losing air—hear the air hiss out of it, symbolizing the built-up tension that’s leaving you. Or you could picture yourself in a relaxed place, like a beach or a hammock in your backyard. The important thing is to find whatever extra image or experience that will help you to relax.

Ari Kiev’s book Hedge Fund Masters has a large section on visualization. While it doesn’t have very good instructions overall, their relaxation exercises are very good.

2.  Begin At the Right Point

You want to find the appropriate point to begin your experience. For most traders, that is when they arrive to the office or computer, or wherever else they are trading. You want to start off with a clean slate at the right beginning point, in order to practice doing things exactly right for the whole trading session.

  1. Imagine a relaxed, cool, calm, focused version of you. Take a good look at this person—get to know how exactly your super-relaxed face looks, how you are breathing, how you are carrying yourself. Note how much you visibly enjoy trading and coming to the office.
  2. Notice the details of the scene  What time is it? What does the office look like? Re-imagine the office with some details that make it more fun, more relaxing and more focusing, to further alleviate any pressure

  3. See yourself walking into the office and taking your seat. See how confident you are of your gameplan and that success will be yours. Get started on your pre-game routine—watch yourself updating charts, checking overnight market activity and newsflow. See yourself checking your positions and formulating a gameplan for the day.

3. Imagine your disciplined, focused, trading day.

  1. Now the market opens. See yourself following prices, your open positions, any potential setups you’ve identified and any open orders you have. Importantly, watch yourself being calm, collected and engaged throughout the whole process.

  2. You are following a certain instrument and think it could be a potential position. Now, walk through a sample trade. Go through various characteristics of the instrument, check them against your various entry criteria, and check everything off against a checklist. See yourself with a filled-out piece of paper with all of the entry criteria or a detailed trade rationale.

  3. The position is a go. Imagine yourself calmly putting on a position, being disciplined in terms of getting in.

  4. Now imagine that you are monitoring your positions and one reaches your take-profit level or meets your take-profit criteria. Imagine acknowledging the level and calmly, smoothly, unexcitedly taking the position off. Or imagine yourself going through the same checklist exercise for taking the position off, ticking all of the boxes, and only then taking it off. See yourself congratulating yourself for making a disciplined trade.

  5. Do the same exercise with a losing position. Imagine that you are following the market attentively, and that it reaches a level that you had previously set for taking it off (your stop loss point). Once the position reaches that level, calmly, unexcitedly, unemotionally close it. See yourself congratulating yourself for making a disciplined trade.

  6. Imagine yourself at the end of the working day. See yourself reviewing your trade blotter and notes where you have all of the following:
  • detailed trade rationales;
  • disciplined position entries and exits (be they winners or losers);
  • notes about potential positions;
  • notes on the market—news, key levels, how it trade, fundamental views;
  • comments on your emotional state—ideally, it is calm

7.Imagine yourself leaving the office, knowing that you gave it your all, were focused and disciplined. Imagine how you would look if you were sure you had done that, just for one day.

4. Make sure everything works and works for you

If you have something that’s not right with your visualization, your brain will be less likely to accept it. Make sure to run back through it, checking all of the details. Your mind will flag troublesome points for you. You need to solve them for the visualization to have maximum effect. It’s like in sports—the point of practice is to practice doing it right. There’s no point in practicing going up on the wrong foot for a layup!

For instance, if you imagine yourself getting to the office at 5AM and you are not a morning person, that will cause a problem. If you imagine yourself following exit criteria that you don’t really believe in or follow, your mind will be skeptical. In that case, review them again and either get comfortable or come up with new ones that you are comfortable with.

Assuming everything checks out, then  you can “wake up” now. You’ve finished—good job!

One other item: I didn’t mention money at any point. One reason is that what we using visualization to practice the core skills of trading, and that is what we are reinforcing. As trading is mostly about making good decisions, that is the logical place to focus our attention. The other reason is because money, and indeed all financial goals, fit into visualizations in a rather unusual way—we will cover that in a later piece.

5.Review what you’ve done

You’ve just installed in yourself and practiced a simplified version of good trading routine—being prepared, deeply involved in the market, making good disciplined trading decisions, putting on and taking off positions when you need to, and being satisfied with that. Pat yourself on the back for having walked through it.

After you’ve done this process the first time, remember that it’s like any kind of practice—the first time, it may be difficult but it gets much easier as you do it. You’ve essentially created the first trail in the forest, and from now, it will be much easier to follow it. Whenever you want to practice this part of your trading, especially without putting actual money at risk, you can walk through this visualization exercise.

6. Update or rerun as needed.

Now that the plan is there, feel free to rerun whenever you need. Ideally, you would do it outside of the trading day—before you go into the office or on the weekends, when you are not trading. That way, you don’t have to take time out of your day. During the day, it’s better to do relaxation-focused visualizations or other similar exercises, like yoga, meditation or prayer.

If you don’t find yourself being better prepared or focused during the trading day, then feel free to update. Some suggestions:

  • You might want to add several stopping points during the day where you see yourself being focused, absorbed, and relaxed. For instance, every hour on the hour
  • You can add yourself talking to your colleagues and accepting good ideas or feedback.
  • You can imagine yourself blocking out distractions—imagine a little forcefield or bubble around you and all kinds of distractions just effortlessly bounce off of it. Or you can picture walls and a door around your trading station, where distractions have to knock and you decide whether or not to let them in.
  • If you have trouble with trading too often, you can imagine yourself evaluating the market, concluding that there’s nothing to do, and subsequently doing nothing for the day. Then imagine patting yourself on the back.

Hopefully this explained how a basic visualization exercise works and how to use it to help your trading. While the explanation of how it works was brief, it should have been enough for the purposes of this exercise.

In the next piece, we are going to explore in more detail how visualizations work. Because visualization as a mental phenomenon is a little unusual, we will draw on some research about how your brain actually works in order to understand it better. Once we understand how visualization works and why, then we can start manipulating various parts of the visualization experience itself, in order to improve the results. Since visualization and its related tools are used actively in fields like sports psychology and therapy, we have lots of experience to draw on. All told, it will lead us in some new and exciting directions.

As always, feel free to follow me on twitter: @HowOfTrading or read my earlier articles on www.howoftrading.com

2021年2月21日 星期日

安裝 CalyxOS 中文教學 (二)

 要Unlock fastboot 首先要在電腦上下載ADB & Fastboot的程序

我們到Android Developers 的官網下載SDK Platform Tools:

https://developer.android.com/studio/releases/platform-tools

也把解壓縮的platform-tools文件夾放到就之前開的CalyxOS文件夾好了

之後把手機連上電腦,可能會出現以下畫面,OK就好了。不OK不能繼續。


我忘了要不要先關機進入fastboot mode,這點你要自己試試。

然後開Terminal (終端機) ,我們要打Command了。不知道就用spotlight找,或者去application,它是mac內置的原生程式。

開了之後打「cd」,然後隔一個space bar,之後把platform-tools的folder拉進去terminal。
拉了進去之後名字後應該多了一個platform-tools在後面,代手你已經用termainal進入了這個folder

然後打「./adb devices」這個「./」對mac terminal很重要,但很多教學也沒有寫,可能是programmer 的common sense吧
應該會如上圖(window 版本,只看內容就好)highlight的部份,
寫著List of devices attached,下一行是「"一堆編碼" device」

下一步,輸入「./fastboot flashing unlock」

手機會問你是不是要unlock,用音量按扭改變選擇到Yes,然後用電源制確認。

它會自動回到原廠設定,耐心等等,如果最後沒有自動開機,用音量按扭改變選擇到「Start」,然後用電源制確認。

最後一步(終於!),我們回到電腦,重新開一個terminal的視窗。

我是先輸入cd /Users/user/Desktop/CalyxOS 讓自己到了folder內。
(其實是輸入「cd」"spacebar" 再把CalyxOS folder拖進terminal然後按enter。
之後把device-flasher.darwin拖進去terminal然後按enter。
就會自動執行了。按terminal 黃字的指示,音量按扭改變選擇,用電源制確認。
最後會有紫色的字寫著Flashing complete。

大功告成。

如果真的不行,可以試一下跟這個youtube。
他是用舊式的方法,用人手manual代替Flasher,因為一開始時,CalyxOS 是沒有安裝程式的。

另外這兩篇reddit也很有參考價值:

沒想到自己真的有心機會把這兩篇寫完,是怕自己下次又忘了如何用terminal吧(笑

接下來這blog又回復到投資筆記的軌道上了。
有緣的話也讓投資者們認識一下FOSS,是個好東西。

如果文章對你有幫助,請留個言,讓我知道寫出來的東西幫到人。有疑問亦可以留言交流。

其他參考連結:
https://android.gadgethacks.com/how-to/android-basics-install-adb-fastboot-mac-linux-windows-0164225/
https://android.gadgethacks.com/how-to/unlock-bootloader-your-pixel-3a-0198625/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CalyxOS/comments/l5cbt2/pixel_5_and_pixel_4a_5g_builds_available_now/

(全文完)




2021年2月20日 星期六

安裝 CalyxOS 中文教學 (一)

今日花了不少時間才成功安裝到CalyxOS於Google Pixel 3a的手機上,沒有想像中的順利,所以更覺得應該要寫一篇筆記來幫助日後想用CalyxOS的朋友們。

是以先不介紹CalyxOS是甚麼,有興趣可以看看這兩條影片(1)(2),我日後會再撰文介紹。先旨聲明,我不是資安專家,連普通編程也不懂,只是一個新手。不過我也想證明給大家看,不同於高級別保安的GrapheneOS,CalyxOS是普通人也能用上手的手機系統。

首先是硬體要求,很遺憾只有指定Android機(見此),都是Google出品/合作出品的項目,因由不在此細說,而我就是上星期在網上買了一部二手的Google Pixel 3a。

老實說對我來講,安裝指示不夠仔細,應該是設計者沒有留意到,一些對他們來說的common sense,我們要畫出腸才明白。

我自己是來來回回碰了多次釘才成功安裝,要一個完整順序的安裝指示我也寫不出來,只能大概從記憶中拼湊出來。

我的配置:Macbook Pro (Late 2013) (CatalinaOS), Google Pixel 3a

所以第一步是下載firmware,按自己用的手機來下載,所以我下載的是Pixel 3a (sargo)。同時下載Flasher (安裝程式)。我用mac那下載的就是 device-flasher.darwin

Firmware官方載點 Flasher官方載點 

firmware是一個壓縮檔,重點,不要解壓縮不要解壓縮不要解壓縮

現在手頭上有兩個檔案,「sargo-factory-2021.02.02.18.zip」(下次更新後名字或者會不同)、「device-flasher.darwin」,在桌面開一個名為「CalyxOS」的folder,把上述兩個檔案都放進「CalyxOS」內。

插一個非勿要的步驟,是確認下載的的檔案是不是最新版本,或者有沒有被有心人偷樑換柱。理論上如果是在官網下載應該是不用擔心的。不過如果touchwood安裝不順利,確認版本至少可以排除是版本太舊的可能性。

正式的方法是檢查檔案的SHA256編碼,在官方載點的頁面上都有寫著,Pixel 3a (sargo)的SHA256是447f45edd8c8cc6a07510ce56b5c09affefdbfd5a60a821a1470081462d427a4。Mac OS Flasher的SHA256是0e63cbeb2fa281a78b29e666074d4a76d998f05ba4614e55789f993483335893。

檢查SHA256編碼要用上terminal,先希望你不會需要用上。可以參考這文章

根據說明,只要你接著打開device-flasher.darwin 就可以了。可是.darwin卻不是MacOS認可的檔案。放心,我們接下來會用terminal打開它。Terminal的使用在用MacOS安裝CalyxOS中佔了簋重要的地位,不過我們現在先把鏡頭轉到去我們的Pixel device 身上。

一開始說了,不是所有android機都可以安裝CalyxOS的。但事實上,也不是所有的Pixel都可以裝CalyxOS。美國有兩款Pixel機,一款是電訊商Verizon版本,另一款是Google版。前者不能進行OME Unlocking,也就不能安裝CalyxOS,因能無論是CalyxOS或GrapheneOS,OME Unlocking都是必須的。

香港好像是沒有行貨代理的Pixel,至少 Pixel 3a沒有,所以很有可能是美國機,這點要留意。至於購買時如何分別,我不知道,因為我也是買了之後才知道。還好我的是Google版。

回到正題,接下來我們會對手機進行多重解鎖。分別是Enable Developer Options,OEM unlocking,Fastboot Unlock。

首先備份好手機,然後解除密碼,不用輸入密碼就可以用手機。

去設定->關於手機,然後點Build number 7次,解鎖Developer Options的功能。

Settings -> About phone




Settings -> System -> Advance

去設定->系統 -> Advance,會發現多了一個 Developer options,點進去,找出"OEM unlocking"然後開了它。





接下來進行Fastboot Unlock,先要用Fastboot Mode Boot機。把手機關了。之後同時長按「開關」以及「減輕音量」按扭。這只是Pixel 3a的設定,其他機種的按鍵好像有點不同。

之後開機應該會去到像以下的畫面,不同device status是綠色的Locked。


而我們就是要把它變成如上圖一般的Unlocked。可是這無法單靠手機自身unlock,於是我們又要回到電腦上。

(第一節完)

如果文章對你有幫助,請留個言,讓我知道寫出來的東西幫到人。有疑問亦可以留言交流。


參考連結:

https://calyxos.org/get/install/

https://calyxos.org/get/

https://medium.com/@EvgeniIvanov/how-to-verify-checksum-on-mac-988f166b0c4f

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdazCQemwqQ&ab_channel=MikeTheTechSavvy

https://android.gadgethacks.com/how-to/unlock-bootloader-your-pixel-3a-0198625/

https://android.gadgethacks.com/how-to/android-basics-install-adb-fastboot-mac-linux-windows-0164225/



2021年2月1日 星期一

被動投資組合(一)永恆組合

前言

自從開始投資後,其中一直最大的困擾是徘徊在兩個「恐懼」的取向當中。一是害怕通脹,二是害怕大跌。前者是因自美國史無前例的量化寛鬆,導致資產價格不停上升,手持現金者必定會輸通脹,不及早購買優質資產的結局就只有死路一條。後者是因為美股的新高,加上市場漸變狂熱,不得不提防泡沫;怕的不是股災後身家縮水,而是大平賣之時若沒有子彈入市,感覺很傻仔後來學習多了,得出一個簡單結論,就是不要Time The Market。2020年3月的境況,並不容易再即時發。

話雖如此,在下怕死的心態依然影響著我的行動。沒有Plan B可不合乎我的投資風格。

這矛盾一直令我懷疑自己的投資策略有很大漏洞,直到有一天看到Kano的舊文提及到「在呀壽的資組合中意識到30年國債的強大防守力」。(之後另起文章寫一寫30年國債) 隨後找到了呀壽的網站,當中有一系列是關於永恒組合,也是我對「被動投資策略」的初接觸。

被動投資策略,就是指以既定的固定比例去投資不同的資產,不主動操作,以長線投資來獲取回報,好處是不用太多的投資知識,唯一需要的,是紀律。而進一步的簡化是以投資該資產的ETF代替資產本身,建立一部傻瓜機。

以下所寫的就是我第一個接觸的組合:永恆組合 Permanent Portfolio。

組合設計背景

每個組合設計時都有他的原因,而當中的考慮往往與設計者的時代背景有關,參考一下也對自己的投資策略有所反思。小弟比較懶,見有網站寫過,就不如直接搬字過紙好了。

市場先生提示:每個投資方法都有它的時代背景
永久投資組合被提出的時間是1980年代之間(最早的時間點不可考),
在那之前美國才經歷1970年~1980年代劇烈的通膨,經歷資產貶值與股市動盪,那十多年實質購買力大跌,股市雖然沒跌,但人們的資產也減損了一半以上,
因此當時的人們其實對於市場都充滿著恐懼與不確定性,永久投資組合就是在這個時代背景下提出的方式。
因此你會發現,它現金、黃金的比重配置就佔了資產的一半,很大因素是出於對市場的恐懼。

有趣的是,在那之後1980~2000年,美國則是進入了史上最強的多頭市場年頭,期間股市特別強,債券也還行(因為開始不斷降息),
反而抗通膨資產(如黃金),在這期間表現就很慘淡。

組合成員

十分簡單:25%股票、25%黃金、25%長期國債、25%短期國債(現金)

此外,要永恒組合有兩條規則,就是每年Re-balance,以及將利息/股息新投資入組合內。


歷史表現

是美國人發明的組合,就先簡單一點以美國市場為例。

以下歷史表現以4支ETF來代表四種資產:

股票:VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market

黃金:GLD SPDR Gold Trust

長期國債:TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond

短期國債:BIL SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mth T-Bill


以下是截至2020年12月31日的資料


*年化(也就是平均每年回報率)

永恒組合在最近十年,平均每年的回報是6.66%。不算太吸引吧,只作抗通脹套餐,也考量到其技術含量之低。

但令我對它產生興趣的地方,從來不是它的回報能力,而是它的防守能力。

到底在大跌市的時候,它的防御力和大市比較到底如何?

簡化一點,我們只看近20年的data。 先看美股表現,美股有史以來最大的跌幅,是2007年的十一月到2009年的二月(共16個月),總共是-50.84%。如果你是高位all-in入場,你的身家就縮水了一半。而永恒組合當同段時期的跌幅,是2008年的三月到同年十月(共8個月),總共是-12.62%

美股股災其次是2000年九月到2002年九月的-43.94%(共25個月),同樣矚目驚心。但永恒組合在2000年九月到2001年三月(共7個月)就只跌了-5.42%。這次就真的非常誇張。

第三就是去年的肺炎,美股一月到三月跌了(共3個月)-20.84%永恒組合二月到三月(共2個月),-1.68%

至於2018年,十月至十二月(共3個月),美股跌了-14.20%永恒組合呢?升了。+1.25%

太誇張了吧?

無論是防御力和回血速度都只能以驚艷來形容。

想像一下大跌時它為你保留了多少子彈?而且在你等待的時候它是一直有在慢慢增長的,不像現金,你不一定會輸給通漲。

ETF

這部份我不認真做功課了,隨便列幾隻能代表以上四種資產的ETF。

要註解一下,根據大家的說法,現時超低息環境下,短債幾乎是沒有債息的,所以是和現金沒有分別。理論是這樣,但我也此懂非懂,設計者Harry Browne的原文是寫短債還是現金我也先不去考究了。

在地化(港股)

到了本文最特別的部分了。以上資料所寫的都是美國市場歷年來的表現,但套用落港股又可行嗎?至少在下目前投資方向還是港美兩邊走,不單是美國,所以也來看一下數據。




*註:所用的資料沒有2004的數據。原來黃金ETF的歷史沒有想像中長久。

表格以近20年香港股市為基准,用其他數據跟MSCI的最大跌幅的時期來比較。所謂的港版永恆組合,只是把美股的25%換成MSCI。我歸納一下我的分析:

  • 五大跌幅中有四大都是同樣影響著美國的國際級經濟危機,但港股的跌幅明顯較多。(這裡沒有考慮時間性或回復速度)
  • 明顯可見,港版永恆組合永恆組合的防守能力差,應該主要是因為受港股拖累。
其實要比較的話還可以比較很多其他的數據,例如回報表現等。但單是Maximum Drawdown比較經已滿足了我的目的,就是防守力分析。另外我沒有提到的地方就是永恆組合有時會在股市獲得正回報時虧蝕(見下圖)。食得鹹魚要抵得渴啊。
紅線美股大市(ETF),藍線永恆組合,留意藍線比紅線低的地方

而另外就是當大市下跌時,執平貨的節奏,也時非常重要。之後再寫。

P.S. 這篇拖了一個多星期才能完成呢,要不是工作不忙恐怕更是會胎死腹中呢。

(待續)




2021年1月21日 星期四

【讀後感】潛規則


@wikipedia

前言

-自從買左kindle之後,閱讀速度大增,隨之而來既結果係睇多左書。

-為左唔好左耳入右耳出,所以寫下讀後感。

-其實我呢種點列式blog文並冇完全發揮到100%既學習效率

-只係習慣需要時間培養,先唔追求一步到位

-done is better than perfect

閱讀動機

-有相熟朋友同我講,「太一,如果你想追求你既目標,太過一板一眼既性格可能會令你冒上更大風險」「了解一啲職埸上既潛規則對你會有幫助」

-說穿了我都只係一名初出茅廬既小子

-緣份到了,遇上呢本電子書

-豈料書中所寫之潛規則並非職埸上既潛規則,而是一堆中國歷史故事

-此書對我影響來得比預期深遠

讀後感

-睇完之後有心理陰影

-有種好重既無力感。

-剖析中國歷史,你會發現,比起白紙黑字的規矩,對國家上下的影響力,往往更來自於其沒有寫出來的潛規則。

-注意,去理解時不應抱著道德批判的心能(至少我沒有),而是去考慮行為的效率。

-然後我就發現了一個可悲的事實:過去兩千年,中國這個民族,上上下下毫無選擇,通通都是被體制推動著的奴隸。

-作者在書中後段有寄語可以向西方學習,可我也不確定西方有好了多少。農奴/地主/國王的關係好像跟東方也差不多,可能到了工業革命後才出現了根本性的變化。

-所以下一本去看的歷史書是 Gun, germs and steel。

-有趣的是作者一開始在前言提到,書中內容有點太黑暗,如果尾段不補上一章「雷鋒精神」恐怕不能出版(笑

-當追求公義的代價太大的時 (或甚超出了個體的生命),很自然會選擇啞忍。

-潛規則不是單純的貪污,它是有規有矩的,甚至存在著維持體度的功能。

-有點像哲學上「必要之惡」的概念

-西方有一說,民主體度不完美,但巳經是最好的辦法了;在中國歷史上,潛規則就有點像這樣的存在。

-西方近年好像有向中國學習管控人民的傾向

-配合科技,可能會成為另一種形式的LCL之海吧(苦笑